I was right! Kinda... How our 2021 telco predictions shook out

By Alex Choros

Last updated 21 December 2021

In the lead up to a new year, I like to gaze into the crystal ball and make a couple of predictions about what it might look like. Well, at least in the telco space. In the interest of holding myself accountable (and bragging a little bit) I figured I should take a look back at whatever nonsense I spouted this time last year.

With that in mind, here's a recap of my 2021 predictions, what actually ended up happening, and where I was wildly off the mark.

mmWave will be a non-event

I called this one.

mmWave is a faster form of 5G that uses higher frequencies to deliver even faster speeds. These can exceed 3Gbps, but comes at the expense of shorter range. While the telcos now actually have access to mmWave spectrum and can deploy their networks, it's nothing to get excited about.

Firstly, the coverage is non-existent. Only Optus and Telstra have actually deployed any mmWave sites, and so far, there aren't very many. They also only exist in Sydney, Brisbane, and Melbourne.

Secondly, there are only two devices that support it: a Telstra hotspot and the Pixel 6 Pro. While Apple and Samsung have mmWave variants of devices like the iPhone 13 and Galaxy S21, they didn't even bother bringing these to Australia this year.

TPG-Vodafone is gonna up

Thanks to the TPG-Vodafone merger finally getting approved last year, I expected this to be a big year for the new super telco. My money was on the new entity being hyper competitive with pricing and offering big bundling incentives. While you can now get perks for bundling your mobile with your internet across the entire TPG family, the deals on offer aren't as aggressive as I predicted. Vodafone is still the most affordable provider out of the Big Three, but honestly, its plans were better last year.

The one exception to this in when it comes top mobile plans from iiNet and Internode, where you can get 40GB for $15 per month for your first six months, which is one of the best (and most popular) deals we've seen in a while.

Samsung kills off the Note

Look, Samsung not releasing a Galaxy Note this year was a pretty safe prediction to make, and unsurprisingly, it panned out. As I said in my original piece, I was expecting this before rumours started. The Note just wasn't a product that makes sense for Samsung any more, not as a standalone flagship. If all that differentiates it from the S-series is a stylus, just give the S-series phones an S Pen.

And that's exactly what happened. The Galaxy S21 Ultra has an optional stylus, the Galaxy Z Fold 3 reveal took the Note's annual reveal slot, and surprise surprise, it also has an optional stylus. It's just a shame Samsung didn't properly integrate the S Pen into either device, instead relying on clunky cases. Maybe we'll see that change in 2022.

More emphasis on extras

Unsurprisingly, telcos are trying to sell us more and more, moving beyond their core competencies. Optus had the biggest announcement in this space, launching SubHub. SubHub is essentially a portal that lets you get all your streaming subscriptions from Optus, with a slight discount if you bundle. It already includes Amazon Prime and BritBox, with Netflix and Paramount+ coming soon.

Telstra also continued to expand the range of services you can bundle onto your Telstra bill, adding Xbox Game Pass Ultimate, and Vodafone now lets you add on AirPods to your plan.

NBN Co will feel pressure from 5G

5G home internet is far more widely available than it was this time last year, but I don't think too little time has passed for its impact to be truly felt by NBN Co. Telstra's 5G home internet - arguably the most appealing due to the widest coverage - launched too late in the year to genuinely shake anything up. We haven't seen any major changes to NBN wholesale pricing as a result of competition from 5G home internet, but at the very least, it's available to many more Australians now. And in many cases, represents better bang for buck than NBN.

Speed tiers for phone plans

My longshot prediction for this year was phone plans looking a bit more like NBN. Instead of picking a data allowance, you'd pick a speed. In a round about way, I think I get partial points for this. Vodafone this year launched its first truly unlimited plan, with no speed caps. Vodafone-owned MVNO felix also offers truly unlimited data, but capped to speeds of 20Mbps and at less than half the price. While it's not quite the same as the Vodafone offering similar tiering internally, I still believe there's a chance the industry goes down this path.